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Javascript麻瓜的練習：今天買不買股票 

Exercise for Javascript Muggle: Buy or Not Buy the stock

 

  • PER Price-to-Earning Ratio 本益比
  • CashDividend 股利 
  • EPS Earning Per Share

  • 如果希望買這個股票是15 年就還本 (PER=15)，過去四年(2018, 2017, 2016, 2015) 平均下來，發的股利是每年平均一股 ＄3 (Average yearly cash dividend=$3)，那麼根據這個期望值，這個股票的買點是每股 $3*15=$45。但是，這是由過去歷史來計算的。還不夠精確。我還想再加入考慮最近一年的情況。可是今年2019 的股利要等明年才發，如果我要今年買這個股票，我怎麼算出合理的買點？那就得拿最近四個 quarter 的 EPS 來估算明年可能的股利。 
  • estimated Cash Dividend for 2019 = total of last 4 quarterly EPS * confidence level，例如，最近四個 quarter 的 EPS，加總後是 $4。但是因為中美貿易戰可能影響獲利，所以 confidence level 我設定成 70%。PER ＝15。那就是說，買點應該是 $4*15*0.7=$42。
  • 我把歷史參考價 $45 跟今年預估價 $42 加總 $87 再平均，就是 ＄43.5。這就是我的股票的買點。
  • 如果今天 actual 股價是 $42，那就可以買啦！那如果是 $48，那就不買啦。

stock name: X

Year
Cash Dividend
2015
4.5
2016
6
2017
6
2018
10
Avg (前四年平均股利)
(4.5+6+6+10)/4 = 6.5
  • Historical reference price: calculate high price and low price for stock X
    • High Price: CashDividend 6.5 * PER 20
    • Low Price: CashDividend 6.5 * PER 15

Stock Name: A
EPS
2018-Q2
2.57
2018-Q3
5.91
2018-Q4
9.42
2019-Q1
3.75
2019 estimated Cash Dividend
2.57+5.91+9.42+3.75=21.65
  • estimate to-date price: calculate high price and low price for stock X
    • High Price: CashDividend 6.5 * PER 25 * confidence level 85%
    • Low Price: CashDividend 6.5 * PER 15 * confidence level 85%


Historical Reference Price
Estimated Price
Avg Price * 85%
high
6.5*25=162.5
21.65*25*0.85=460.0
(162.5+460)/2 = 311.3
low
6.5*15=97.5
21.65*15*0.85=276.0
(97.5+276.0)/2 = 186.8

  • calculate the average Cash Dividend of last 4 years
  • estimate the cash Dividend for current year 2019 by calculating the sum of last 4 quarterly EPS
  • calculate the average of historical reference price and estimated to-date price
  • Current price of stock X is 158. Your code should print the following message to the console: 
    • Name of stock: X, Current price: 158, Buy? Yes, cheap stock.
  • Current price of stock X is 400. Your code should print the following message to the console: 
    • Name of stock: X, Current price: 400, Buy? No. expensive stock.
  • Current price of stock X is 200. Your code should print the following message to the console: 
    • Name of stock: X, Current price: 200, Buy? Yes, inexpensive stock.
 Stock Reference: https://goodinfo.tw/StockInfo/index.asp

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